"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."
~Mike Tyson

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Mikey Garcia vs Adrien Broner - Fight Breakdown And Prediction

Un-Promoted By The PBC

Photo: thesweetscience.com
Though the buzz surrounding it hasn't been quite what this scribe believed it would be (thanks PBC), there's a fight happening on July 29th, 2017 that should be, at the very least, interesting if not entertaining. That fight being the hard hitting tactician Mikey Garcia vs the entertaining but fatuous Adrien Broner. Not only has there been very little buzz around this fight but Broner has been uncharacteristically quiet and well behaved...by his standards anyway. Despite the seemingly tepid promotion and response from fans, this fight is likely to provide moments of humor, violence, and a knock down or two. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone picking the cockeyed Broner but yours truly is a bit surprised to find so many pundits whom believe this fight will be highly competitive or that Adrien Broner will give the vastly more talented and skilled Garcia fits throughout the fight.

Sure, one can argue that the inactivity of the Moreno Valley native might keep him from being as sharp as he could be but keep in mind that Broner too is essentially a part time fighter having fought just 7 times since his somewhat shocking and hilarious loss to Marcos Maidana in the back end of 2013. Fighting just twice a year has unfortunately become the norm in the sport but be that as it may, this type of activity or lack thereof doesn't ever do any professional boxer any favors in terms of keeping the tools greased and the blades sharpened. Some may also argue that Garcia is untested at Light Welterweight (140 lbs) and that he had just one fight at Super Lightweight (135 lbs) before signing for this bout. This argument is washed by the fact that Broner has not only struggled and looked flat at Welterweight (147 lbs) but that Broner did his best work before moving up to 140 lbs. Let no one forget that in addition to the aforementioned, Broner has had trouble making weight though in this fight the $500K penalty for tipping the scales will likely keep Broner motivated, at least enough to avoid losing a significant portion of his purse.

Tale of the tape
Photo: premierboxingchampions.com
Activity and weight issues aside, both men have had their dedication to the sport questioned in the past. Whether it be Garcia's lackadaisical and cavalier attitude towards boxing or Broner's indolence, personal irresponsibility, and lack of dedication, both men have given boxing-heads plenty of variables to mull over before making their pick. That said and with all things considered this fight will be decided not on who's more dedicated to their job but rather sheer talent, skill, craft, and power. Garcia has an advantage in nearly every conceivable category, save for reach and he's only giving up one inch there. Mikey Garcia is the much better fighter in this match-up and and brings the greater and deeper skill set to the ring. Broner is a solid fighter with a name but he has struggled against a lower level of competition at times.

Broner Keys To Victory

The "Can Man"
Photo: boxrec.com
If boxing was more than a job to Mikey Garcia and he fought 3 or 4 times a year I would brazenly tell you that Broner has no chance in this fight. Mikey's inactivity, weight jumping, and inexperience above 135 lbs might be things Broner can exploit. I don't think they'll play as big a part in the fight as some, though it'd be foolhardy to dismiss these facts. Broner has to find a way to capitalize on his greater experience at heavier weight classes. Broner must be aggressive from the opening bell, employ a solid jab or double jab, and hit the supremely talented Garcia anywhere he can. Admittedly it's a stretch but Broner must not be himself come July 29th. His work rate must be unusually high and he can not afford to wait for the right punch before throwing. Instead he must hit Garcia often and everywhere. The Broner we have become accustomed to watching simply can not defeat Garcia. Adrien has to push the action, be the busier fighter, get off first, and be consistent in those things if he wants to have any chance at emerging victorious. The economical Garcia is there to be outworked though Broner will have to survive his heavy hands first.

Garcia Keys To Victory

Mikey Garcia
Photo: boxrec.com
In sharp contrast to how Broner must behave in this fight, Garcia needn't do anything but be himself. It's very unlikely that Broner has the conditioning nor the talent to win this fight. Knowing that, Garcia has only to bide his time and figure out how to properly time Broner, whose offense often leaves him open for big counters. Against Maidana we learned that Broner can be hurt and dropped. Garcia is a much more skilled and heavier hitting fighter than the Argentinian was so he need only to apply his craft competently on July 29th. Moreover, Garcia can drastically shorten the fight by working the body of Broner and taking his legs away early on.


How The Fight Plays Out

Expect Garcia and Broner to be themselves in this fight. From the opening bell throughout round 4 Garcia will stalk his opponent with a measured poise while he analyzes his foe. Conversely, expect to see Broner use his jab tentatively on the outside and keep his legs moving throughout these rounds. Though there's always a chance of Garcia catching Broner with something big early on, expect a rather quiet opening to this fight.

As the fight progresses Garcia should begin both timing Broner and finding the holes in his offense and defense. Once Garcia starts this process it's only a matter of time for the garrulous and limited Broner. Mikey Garcia drops Broner in the 5th which causes Broner to begin moving backwards rather than forwards. Following that sequence of events Broner's offense slows and Mikey gets his man out of there in round 7.

Winner: Garcia by KO in round 7

Scott Jarvis is a boxing writer for Split D Boxing. He can be reached on TwitterFacebook, or by email at splitdecisionbox@gmail.com.

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